Nanomedicine and the Future of Healthcare

This article examines the status of nanomedicine, medical nanosensors, artificial organs, stemcells, genetherapy, molecular imaging and related topics.

“In contrast, the medicine of Star Trek is set in a ‘high tech’ future. Scanners are employed that tell the user the patient’s vital parameters and automatically display the diagnosis. Monitoring devices are utilised which constantly watch the patient’s condition and alert medical staff if something is amiss. Special emergency blankets are used to maintain body temperature. Surgery in Star Trek has advanced such that brain transplants are possible. It is clear that much of the above is being developed in modern day medicine and if brain surgery does not yet involve brain transplantation it is not for want of trying; certainly nerve cells have been transplanted into brains of patients with Parkinson’s disease with mixed results.” - Professor Paul Goddard MD Plausible Futures Newsletter 12.08.2002: As the phrase nanotechnology slowly enters the househould vocabulary scientists in a wide range of industries is looking for potential applications. This article will examine the consquences nanotechnology will have in the medical industry and subsequently the healthcare industry in general. Nanobiology. Many fundamental biological functions are carried out by molecular machineries that have the sizes of 1-100 nm. One of the most studied and best understood biomechanical motors is the ATP synthase. The ATP synthase is the universal enzyme that synthesizes ATP, the universal fuel that powers most cellular processes. To understand the functions of these machineries, one has to describe their movements, changes in their shapes, and their localization. This new field, that merges mechanistic biology and morphology, is called nanobiology. The emergence of nanobiology depended on the invention of the scanning probe microscopy, modern optical techniques, and micro-manipulating techniques. This concept of nanobiology was first proposed by the Japanese Agency of Science and Technology, in a group study named “Biological Nano-Mechanisms” in 1992-1998. Biomolecular imaging. The report “Biomolcular imaging using atomic force microscopy” published by Elsevier’s Trends in Biotechnology examines how atomic force microscopes (AFM) can be used to directly observe dynamic biomolecular process in vivo. Explained in simple terms this implies the ability to view macromolecules (proteins and DNA) processing in their natural surroundings. This technology is of great importance to the study of how cell’s inner biomachinery works in the human body. The challenge of using AFM on organic materials compared to in-organic materials is about the effect of the probing on the material. Organic materials, like tissues, reacts and changes with the AFM probing, this requires that the force of the probe is kept very low to avoid deforming of the inspected material. In addition to this challenge, the examination of organic materials in vivo, requires fast scanning of the changes within the cell to capture the processes at work. Other imaging technology is also making significant progress. Diffusion Tensor Magnetic Resonance Imaging (DT-MRI) is similar to conventional MRI in that it’s a non-invasive method that doesn’t need contrast agents or dyes to produce images of the inside of the body. But DT-MRI differs in that it’s able to measure the three-dimensional random motion of water molecules in soft tissues. That produces intricate images of the soft tissue’s structure that can help doctors better detect development, degeneration, disease and aging in soft tissue. Progress within cellular communication is also making headway. Researchers are trying to understand the cascade of molecular events that convert signals outside a cell into exquisitely specific responses within. As scientists gain insight into the complex nature of cells the prospect of individualized medicine and gene therapy becomes closer to practical medical administration. Medical Nanoparticles, BioMEMS, Proteomics and DNA-chips. The development of DNA-chips (lab on a chip) that first could scan single DNA’s for a genetic marker has evolved to proteomics which initially was defined as the effort to catalog the protein complement of cells and tissues. Proteomics has now come to include the systematic study of the functions, interactions, cellular location, expression and post-translational modifications of proteins on a massively parallel scale. Bioinformatics and biodynamics, the modelling and computational work needed to understand the complete human genome, makes this work more efficient and gives scientists the tools to understand the vast amount of genetic information. The quest for understanding macromolecular mechanisms and how to engineer drugs to suit individual genetics is the extension of the current research into proteomics. Individualized medicine would make medication more focused on the actual complication, compared with traditional medicine where the body is flooded with medication. Magnetic nanoparticles containing drugs could be attracted to specific areas of the body by applying a magnetic field. Concentrating the particles in areas requiring treatment would enhance the therapeutic benefits while reducing side effects on other areas of the body. Magnetic nanoparticles for in-vivo biomedical use must be small enough to avoid detection by the immune system, yet large enough to remain in the body long enough to be circulated through the bloodstream. The Alliance for Nanomedical Technologies. The Alliance for Nanomedical Technologies is a New York agency funded by the New York State Office of Science, Technology and Academic Research (NYSTAR). A .8 million grant is divided between a variety of projects at Cornell University, the University of Rochester, Wadsworth Center along with several private companies. Some of these companies are involved in the areas of biochemistry, instrumentation and lithography. The services on the Cornell campus include the Cornell Nanofabrication facility, which include 6,000 square foot class 100 and class 1000 clean rooms. This is a comprehensive facility that gets all the devices fabricated on campus. Cornell also has a nano/biotechnology center with biological cleanrooms, which will permit the use of biological samples. A lot of companies utilize these facilities for prototyping their devices Companies in the alliance include Welch Allyn doing biomedical instruments, Agave Biosystems doing biosensors, Anvik manufactures photolithographic equipment and Superpose works with faculty on campus to develop a miniature x-ray vision system for imaging. Another venture with Leica Microsystems is developing optical instrumentations for biological devices. All of these technologies are in varying stages of development according to Doctor K.V. Madanagopal in the latest San Franciscio Consulting Group’ Nanotech Business Update. Medical nanosensors. Implanted nanosensors that gather medical information would make diagnosis easier and more efficient. These devices can e.g. send a signal to a pump to release more insulin for diabetes patients. Machines that simultaneously measure and administer insulin today are large and cumbersome, but with nanosensors the technology is implanted and the patient will be relieved of being constantly alert. This technology is bringing the physician into the human body in a less invasive manner, and in the future similar devices could be used to deliever any sort of medication. Nanosensors can also be used to detect DNA sequences in the body. The first use of DNA motors is already beginning to emerge in the form of biosensors. These are instruments that researchers use to detect a very specific piece of DNA that may be related to disease. Such sensors enable detection of only a few DNA molecules that contain specific sequences and thus possibly diagnose patients as having specific sequences related to a cancer gene or not. NASA is currently working on nanosensors that could help astronauts detect harmful radiation levels in their bodies while in space. Nanosensors will avoid problems associated with current much-larger implantable sensors, which can cause inflammation; and eliminate the need to draw and test blood samples. The devices can be administered transdermally, or through the skin, avoiding the need for injections or IVs during space missions. The nanosensors use dendrimers (tree-like polymers) that have fluorescent tags attached that glow in the presence of proteins associated with cell death. The plan is to develop a retinal-scanning device with a laser capable of detecting fluorescence from lymphocytes as they pass one-by-one through narrow capillaries in the back of the eye. Artificial blood. Robert Freitas, a senior Foresight Institute research fellow, is considered to be among the leading researchers on medical nanotechnology. One of his proposals include artificial red blood cells. The artificial red blood cell or “respirocyte” is a bloodborne spherical 1-micron diamondoid vessel able to deliver 236 times more oxygen than natural red cells. The hypothetical system includes an onboard nanocomputer and numerous chemical and pressure sensors that enable complex device behaviors remotely reprogrammable by the physician via externally applied acoustic signals. Some of the applications of “respirocytes” will include transfusable blood substitution; partial treatment for anemia, perinatal/neonatal and lung disorders; enhancement of cardiovascular/neurovascular procedures, tumor therapies and diagnostics; prevention of asphyxia; artificial breathing; and a variety of sports, veterinary, battlefield and other uses. Respirocytes could also be used as a cooling fluid replacing blood during cryonic suspension. Medical Implants and Remote Monitoring. Biomimetics is the study of natural systems to improve the design and functionality of syntehtic systems. It’s obvious that to be able to artificially design a heart you need detailed knowledge of the real one. The AbioCor artificial plastic heart entered medical trials last year, several patients is alive and well with a plastic heart ticking in their chests. Equipped with an internal motor, the AbioCor is able to move blood through the lungs and to the rest of the body while simulating the rhythm of a heartbeat. The AbioCor consists of an internal thoracic unit, an internal rechargeable battery, an internal miniaturized electronics package and an external battery pack. Artififical hearts may be the first on a string of artificial replacements for body parts. Artificial livers, lungs, and other major body parts should be as plausible as an artificial heart. The “Digital Angel” from Applied Digital Solutions is an implantable device for medical information. The introduction of this product caused an international uproar due to privacy concerns. What is already a far more widespread reality is that contemporary cardiac pacemakers and defibrillators already support wireless transfer of medical information, usually done at the doctor’s office. Medical device supplier Medtronic has now started supporting 2 million defibrillator patients in collecting this data themselves and send it to doctors through the internet. This saves both the patient and doctor’s time and allows for continous remote monitoring of a patient. One day all your medical information might be transfered to your doctor, or to a medical respons-team. Shape-Memory Alloys. Shape-memory biocompatible alloys for medical use has been around for several years. One of the first medical applications involved bendable surgical tools that enter the body in one shape and change to the desired shape after having reached the desired position inside the body. Some of the latest shape-memory alloy applications involve bone repair and systems for reinforcing blood vessels. Other applications include skull and craniofacial bone distraction; Rivets, screws and pellets; Vertebral body replacement; Long bone replacement with self-locking capacity. Some future applications include the ability to introduce bodyparts in a small shape that easily enters the body, and after reaching the desired position to return to the shape of the body part that needs to be replaced. Nanotech Environmental Disaster. The science-fiction novel, Blood Music by Greg Bear, describes a world where an intelligent virus runs amok and starts evolving into a sort of super-intelligence that absorbs all organic material into it’s pulsating shapeless body (that covers all of northern-america in the end of the story). This science-fiction story has been materialized in the nightmares of nanotechnologists. Blood Music has been transformed into the pet-story of nanotech in massmedia, the “grey-goo” scenario. This scenario has now been analyzed seriously by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The background for the research is that companies are producing commercial nanomaterials and nanoparticles for use in cosmetics, paints, coatings, fabrics - to provide added strength or other properties that regular materials can’t offer. Researchers at EPA found that nanoparticles are showing up in the livers of research animals, can seep into living cells, and perhaps piggyback on bacteria to enter the food chain. Although the promise of materials with highly sophisticated properties hold a great promise for many industries, the consquences for human health and the enivornment is still unknown. Nanotechnology as vectors in genetherapy. Carbon nanotubes has been considered used as a system for drug delievery in genetherapy. Nanotubes is at the size where cells don’t recognize them as harmful intruders. The most common used genetherapy method today involves modified viruses as the vector of gene-delievery. This has caused several problems related to immune respones to the virus. With carbon nanotubes this problem might be overcome. Erick B. Iezzi at Virginia Tech has developed the first organic derivative of a metallofullerene and has figured out how to make the metal-filled buckeyballs soluble, bringing them a step closer to biological applications. One application being the the delivery of medicine or radioactive material to a disease site. This and many other applications of carbon nanotube related technologies show great promise as a vector for drug delivery or gene-therapy vehicles. Stemcells and cloning. Stemcells holds the promise of regenerative technology. Obtaining stemcells from your own body and growing these cells into the desired bodypart is considred to be possible in the short-term future. The timeline for creating complete organs based on stemcells is said to be 10 to 15 years ahead of realization. The Massachusetts-based Advanced Cell Technology attempted recently to clone human embryos but failed because its embryos were only able to divide into a few cells. Zhongshan Medical University in China has grown embryos beyond the 200-cell stage, large enough for the harvesting of embryonic stem cells (ESCs). ESCs are highly-prized because of their potential to be transformed into any body cell to treat a range of diseases. Theoretically, such cell lines can be grown into transplant tissue and eventually into entire organs. Don’t hold your breath… Although many of the ideas presented here still only exist in research labratories the “time-to-market” of these technologies may not be as long as people like to think. Although there’s a long process of getting new medical technology to the market, many of these inventions could save millions of lives and therefore gives companies the incentives to hasten their research. The interest in anti-aging medicine, life-extension and the popularity of cryonics indicates where modern medicine is heading. The desire to live forever has been around for a long time. “The Propsect of Immortality” was published in 1965 and is one of the first books detailing cryonics and other technologies for immortality. Transhumanists consider death to be a minor obstacle and consider life no longer to be limited by aging and death. The International Necronautical Society is set up to explore death in every aspect. According to their manifesto their “ultimate aim shall be the construction of a craft that will convey us into death in such a way that we may, if not live, then at least persist… Let us deliver ourselves over utterly to death, not in desperation but rigorously, creatively, eyes and mouths wide open so that they may be filled from the deep wells of the Unknown.” These sentiments cause deep ethical and philosophical debates, the driving force being the exponential technological progress pushing death further away. If immortality isn’t achieved with your physical body, there’s always the concept of mind-downloading. Downloading involves the storage of your entire personal history, memories, emotions and knowledge digitally in a computer. When a new body that suits your needs is ready, you simply upload your information into the brain of your new body. Remember, don’t hold your breath… ————————————– Ole Peter Galaasen (30) is a freelance researcher and writer based in Oslo, Norway. If you like this work consider using my research services for market analysis, competitive intelligence or other information gathering needs. I’ve researched several topics; ecommerce, banking, public sector, higher education. I’m personally interested in nanotechnology, biotechnology, space and aviation, information warfare and international politics. References: Biomolecular imaging using atomic force microscopy NIGMS aims big guns at macromolecular structure A sharper image for imaging Nanobiotech Makes the Diagnosis Lasers light way to 3-D imaging in Purdue lab From The Realm Of The Tiny Come The Tools For Human Regeneration Biomolecular Systems, Devices and Technologies Nanopharmaceuticals Open Up Brand New Field Of Study No Small Matter! Nanotech Particles Penetrate Living Cells and Accumulate in Animal Organs SCIENTIST, ENTREPRENEUR FINDS MARRIAGE OF NANOTECH AND BIOTECH DNA nanoballs boost gene therapy A Mechanical Artificial Red Cell: Exploratory Design in Medical Nanotechnology Exploring the incredibly small, medical nanorobots Fantastic Voyage — Filled buckeyball now a step closer to becoming a drug-delivery device Another Dimension in MRI Scanning ‘NANOMOTORS’ MAY PLAY ROLE IN MEDICAL TREATMENT Buckymedicine, coming soon to a pharmacy near you? BioMEMs & Biomedical Nanotech WORLD 2002

Energy, Entropy and Technology

Since the dawn of the Industrial Civilization the growth of the economical system has become independent on the access to fossil fuels. From the first water mill to todays nuclear power plants human activity has been irreversible tied to the use of natural resources and fossil fuels. Based on current economical growth the expected growth in energy consumption is between 150-250 % to 2050. What implications will the future global energy situation have on the world system?

Collapse, if and when it comes again, will this time be global. No longer can any individual nation collapse. World civilization will disintegrate as a whole. Competitors who evolve as peers collapse in like manner. - Joseph A. Tainter, 1988 The Current and Future Global Energy Situation British Petroleum (BP) has published the ”BP Statistical Review of World Energy” since 1951. The latest report describes the distribution and consumption of natural resources. In 2002 the world energy consumption was distributed like this: 36% oil, 23% coal, 20% gas, 11% biomass, 7% nuclear, 2% hydrogen og 1% sun/wind/geothermal. Looking at the geographical distribution of these natural resources we find that the Middle East is the most oil rich region with 650 billion barrels. The rest of the world starts at 96 billion barrels located in Latin and South America and ends with 19 billion barrels in Europe. Known gas reserves is equal in the former Soviet Union and and the Middle East at 55 trillion cubic meter. Known coal reserves is predominantly located in Asia (290 billion tons), with North America and the former Soviet Union as a close second and third. The Middle East has insignificant amounts of coal. Looking at the geographic distribution of the consumption of these scarce natural resources we find that the U.S. consumed 40% of the total oil production in 1998. From 1999 to 2000 the import of oil and petrouleum increased with 65%. Comparing consumption with oil production in the U.S., standing at 18% of the world total, we understand why 1/3 of the U.S. trade deficit is caused by imported oil. China being the worlds most populous country with the fastest growing economy, expecting a 7% GNP growth compared to meager 2% in the west. China is the second largest total energy consumer, being numer three in oil specifically. China use predominantly coal for power generation. The pollution in some Chinese provinces is of such magnitudes that they enter the atmospheric system and travel across the Pacific Ocean to cause environmental harm in the U.S. Petroleum and reservoar engineers has feared a world peak of oil in the early 21th Century since the 50’s. Reservoar engineers use the term ”Estimated Ultimately Recoverable” (”EUR”) to indicate the absolute amount of oil in each well. A ”peak” is the point where the ”EUR” reach the total production volume, subsequently leading to future decline in production. A ”peak” is also the point where the number of new discoveries of reservoars decline compard to expected production growth. The total consumption of petroleum is more than 65 millions pr. day. Based on historic energy consumption, future trajectories point to 100 million barrels pr. day in 2015. New resorvoars is detected at a slower rate than the expected growth in consumption. This has caused a decline in the expected lifetime of known reserves and is now expected to be 40 years. The most powerful nation in the world, the U.S., is dependent on imported oil from the Middle East. China, the fastes growing nation in the world depend on the most polluting fossile fuel, coal. To add extra suspense to this situation, the world will probably reach peak production of both oil and gas within the next 10 to 20 years. U.S. oil production peaked in the early 70’s as predicted by M. King Hubbert (famous for his Hubbert’s Peak), European oil production will peak soon or has already peaked. The western world is slowing entering a period of dramatic decline in production and further depence on the Middle East. The Ruling Economic Paradigm What happens when growth approaches fixed limits and is forced to give way to some form of equilibrium? Are there choices before us that lead to alternative world futures? … Exponential growth does not continue forever. Growth of population and industrialization will stop. If man does not take conscious action to limit population and capital investment, the forces inherent in the natural and social system will rise high enough to limit growth. The question is only a matter of when and how growth will cease, not whether it will cease. (Forrester, 1971) The ruling paradigm in economical theory is based on continous economic growth (lowered from 4% to aprox. 2% in the west) Economic growth implies growth in energy consumption. The existing economic paradigm reflects a fundamental dysfunctional worldview. The current economic growth and continued depletion of natural resources will eventually lead to a global economic collaps.This economic world view is exposed in the controversial book ”Limits to Growth”, the ”The Olduvai Theory” by Richard Duncan, Jay Forrester’s system dynamics theory of ”overshoot and collapse” and many other books and articles dealing with the collaps of the Industrial Civilization caused by energy depletion. Established economic theory is the product of a fraudelent world order that will keep their fangs tightly locked on the last natural resources left. Our socio-political economic system is based on a fundamental lie about the nature of energy and economic growth. The lie purports that economic growth is isolated from natural resources. This paradigm is incompatible with the entropic nature of our planets resources and the fact that we live in a closed energy system. The globalist and industrialists rulers of this paradigm don’t want you to understand this. Their corporate whores, the oil-soaked spy-riddled monopoly press, the international banking system, the military-industrial-political complex all has their vested interests and stakes in this end-game. The violent conflicts that arise from energy depletion is rearing it’s ugly head in Afghanistan, Iraq, Sudan and many other parts of the world. The last drop of oil will cost billions of human lives. Nanotechnology to the Rescue CMP/Cientifica, a European nanotechnology research company, released their report ”Nanocatalysis and Fossil Fuels” in July 2002. The report gives a detailed perspective on the current energy situation, many of which I have mentioned here. The reports main focus is on catalytic technologies used in the energy sector. The area of the fossil fuel industry in which catalyst use is most widesprad and established is in refining, where crude oil is converted into various fuels, such as diesel, gasoline, aviation fuel etc. Nanocatalysis is about increasing the surface area of the catalyst and controlling the orientation of the atoms in the exposed surface area to improving the effectiveness of the catalyst. Progress within nanotechnology is increasingly leading to industrial usage. Recently the Tokyo Institute of Technology developed a high-performance catalyst that decomposes methane directly into solid carbon and hydrogen with high effeciency and purity. The catalyst is made from a mesh of thin carbon fibers studded with nanoparticles of a nickel compound. When the methane gas flows through the mesh at a temprature of around 500 C, the carbon and hydrogen atoms that make up the methane molecules seperate. This technology could lead to applications wihtin fuel cell technology because of the high purity of the hydrogen. One of the most interesting aspects of nanocatalysis is a more effective way of converting coal into gas and liquid. Nanocatalysis use heat to separate coal into individual molecules so that molecules of sulfur, nitrogen, ash, and other impurities can be removed efficiently and inexpensively. The purified coal molecules is enriched with hydrogen and produce liquid fuel. The prospect of turning China’s large coal resources into a transport friendly source of energy made the U.S. Dept. of Energy interested. In cooperation with Hydrocarbon Technologies they collaborate with Shenhua Group, China’s largest producer of coal, to build a nanocatalysis plant in China. Some say effective nanocatalysis on China’s coal reserves is enough to feed the entire U.S. energy need for another 800 years. Instead of being tied to the oil of the Middle East, maybe the U.S. will fuel it’s economy on converted Chinese coal thus undermining the power of OPEC? The geopolitical ramifications of today’s energy politics is obvious. The leverage of cheap energy from catalysed Chinese coal on the Middle East will be of interest. The effect of new technology on energy consumption and production will be drastic. In the meantime the powerlords of oil companies and their political allies will continue to kill and destroy anything that get’s in their way. The End of the End Game Given the current shape of the human population graph, those indicators also spell out a much larger and, from our point of view, more ominous message: the human plague cycle is right on track for a demographically normal climax and collapse. Not only have our genes managed to conceal from us that we are entirely typical mammals and therefore vulnerable to all of evolution’s customary checks and balances, but also they have contrived to lock us so securely into the plague cycle that they seem almost to have been crafted for that purpose. Gaia is running like a Swiss watch. (Morrison, 1999) Population growth and increased energy usage pr. capita will continue despite the warnings that the capacity of this planet is exceeded by far. To sketch scenarios based on the uncertainty of these paramteres show us some interesting snap shots of the future. The timeframe of these driving forces are short- to mid-term, a drastic change in the global economy is inevitable in our generation. To hold that day back you should remember to turn off your lights. Ole Peter Galaasen (30) is a freelance researcher and writer covering science and technology, geopolitics and international affairs. If you like this work consider using my research services for market analysis, competitive intelligence or other information gathering needs. References If we really have the Oil, Bloomberg, PDF. Coal is this sorcerer’s stone, Red Herring  Nanotechnology may help city keep `energy capital’ title, Houston Business Chronicle Long Term Energy Scenarios, the approach of the World Energy Council Plausible scenarios for future global oil production, World Resource Institute Statistics: http://energy.cr.usgs.gov/energy/stats_ctry/Stat1.html http://www.bp.com/centres/energy2002/

Eric Drexler - an unauthorized biography

Since the ancient roman philosopher Demokrit introduced the concept of atoms as the fundament of matter, mankind has sought to control and manipulate the environment. The later alchemical ideas of the elements “earth, wind, water and fire” and the transmutation of metal into gold shows early interest in the complexity of nature. The evolution of the sciences cumulated with the academic disciplines of physics, chemistry and biology. Drexler fuses all these disciplines into the multi-disciplinary field of molecular manufacturing and nanotechnology.

“If you want to know what molecular nanotechnology is, look yourself in the mirror” - Eric Drexler K. Eric Drexler was born in Oakland, California in 1955 and grew up in the lush west-coast state of Oregon. His brilliant mind brought him to the east-coast ivory league Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the late 1970’s. Inter-disciplinary interests lead him to molecular biology, biochemistry and computer science. Reflecting over the consequences of the ability to design and control structures at the size of cells and molecules, Drexler headed down the nanometer path. The academic atmosphere of these early years of Drexlers academic career provided the intellectual stimulus that would fuel a technological visionary. Drexler’s interest in propulsion technology resultet in technical papers on solar sails and later a patent using thin metal films for solar sail technology. Space exploration and colonization was topics covered in his paper “Solar Sailing ” from 1976. Drexler’s studies at MIT resulted in the first ever scientific article on molecular manufacturing published in 1981. Although many consider Richard Feynman speech “There is plenty of room at the bottom ” from 1959 to be the first technical approach to nanotechnology in it’s broadest sense, Drexler defines the possibilities with even greater detail. The article introduce the basic nomenclature of molecular manufacturing and propose a theory of replicating the protein folding mechanism of the DNA. Biochemistry had shown Drexler how the self-assembly of biochemical structures can be copied and used to build larger strucutures. This is what later would be called “wet” nanotechnology where micro- and nano-mechanical structures are built bottom-up using existing biological mechanisms found in nature. The growing fields of space technology, computer science and artificial intelligence introduced Drexler to Marvin Minsky. Minksy is the author of the best-seller “The Society of Mind ” from 1987 which is considered by many to be the definitive AI classic. The cornerstone of Minsky’s theory is the conception of minds as collections of enormous numbers of semi-autonomous, intricately connected agents that are themselves mindless. Drexler show how molecular nanotechnology will be essential for sufficient computing power for hard artificial intelligence. Minsky was also Drexler’s supervisor during his Ph.D in molecular nanotechnology. ETHOS FOR A NEW TECHNOLOGICAL PARADIGM. Science-ficition is often laughed at by those who conjure up images of 1950’s space-rockets, robots, and ray-guns. Sci-fi, the genre widely used in totalitarian regimes to covertly relay messages of dissidence has always been in the forefront of futuristic concepts. The technological wonders illustrated in Popular Science and sci-novels of the 1950’s turned into reality with the introduction of personal computers, satellites and mobile phones. Nanotechnology had it’s practical breakthrough with the invention of the Atomic Force Microscope (AFM) in 1986. Since then it has been the instrument of choice for three dimensional measurements at the atomic scale. With the publication of Engines of Creation Drexler took his ideas further and transformed what earlier had been found in obscure science-fiction into a manifesto for a new technological revolution. Neither academia or the scientific community had seen so many radical ideas presented with such scientific precision. Who could imagine machines the size of molecules while the PC was considered a technological marvel? THE CRITICAL TECHNOLOGICAL OPTIMIST With Engines of Creation Drexler kills the myth of the Mad Scientist. The influence from Vannevar Bush post-war speech “As We May Think ” may have helped form the social consciousness of Drexler. Engines of Creation is not a naive praise of technology but a thoughtful analysis of the consequence of nanotechnology on industry, energy and war. Drexler was one of the first who understood the implications of nanotechnology and chose to inform the public about the enormous challenges posed by this breakthrough technology. Some of the most horrific applications of nanotechnology made Drexler consider his position as a technological whistle-blower. Would the population be able to rationally comprehend the prospect of infite material wealth, invisible surveillance drones and immortality? Concluding this state of deep contemplation Drexler was convinced that technological progress is inevitable, regardless of popular opinion and majority rule. Medical regenerative molecular nanotechnology could reanimate cryonically stored dead people. To secure the credibility of nanotechnology Drexler is said to have chosen not to be cryonically suspended post mortem. While preserving the scientific objectivity of nanotechnology Drexler would became a martyr. To further strengthen the credibilty of his work Drexler publish Nanosystems in 1992. The book is based on the 1991 Ph.D and clarify and expand on the theories propsed in Engines of Creation. Nanosystems is considered to be the best introduction to nanotechnology to date and wins the annual Association of American Publishers award for best computer science book the same year. NANOTECHNOLOGY SCEPTICS. Like the genius of Wilhelm Reich and Nicolas Tesla, Drexler produce theories for technologies that threaten the established scientific order. With the publication of the article “Trends in Nanotechnology: Waiting for Breakthroughs ” Scientific American tried to discredit Drexler and molecular manufacturing. The article results in a series of arguments about the feasability of molecular manufacturing. With Drexler’s humorous wit the article was dismantled and shown to lack the distinction between general nanotechnology and molecular manufacturing. Next in line to attack Drexler was Jeremy Rifkin, author of dystopian books like “The End of Work” dealing with aging and the automation and subsequent slashing of the workforce. “Entropy” explains the end of the world caused by the exhaustion of natural resources by economic growth. Rifkins complains about Drexlers lacking consideration of larger global changes that would out-weigh the progress within nanotechnology. Eric Drexler have no respect for the fear-mongering of Rifkin and comments “Why flog the carcass of Rifkin’s Entropy? Simply because today’s information systems often present even stillborn ideas as if they were alive. By encouraging false hopes, false fears, and misguided action, these ideas can waste the efforts of people actively concerned about long-range world problems.” The current ethical discussion over human repoductive cloning and regenerative use of stem cells calls for a new socio-ethical compass and Drexler help us dissiminate the widespread techoangst and long dead religious moral codes as obsolete. This leaves us with the question about how we relate to and approach the future. Should the Rifkinesqe visions of global collaps or Drexlers ideas of a society of abundance inspire our evolutionary path? THE DREXELIAN REALITY Fast-forward a few years, to the 21st century of today, and nanotechnology is considered an emerging technology with specialized scientific publications, media outlets and venture capital groups. Drexler’s work for the Institute for Molecular Manufacturing and the Foresight Insitute has contiously shaped the developement of nanotechnology as a scientific discipline. Products using nanotechnology is hitting the market while Drexler ponders the next small thing that will change the world. The estimated growth in nanotechnology related industry is beyond comparison and may fuel the next economic boom. The ideas first proposed by Drexler is rapidly changing production methods in industries across the globe. From microelectromechanical systems to medical nanotechnology Drexlers ideas is put to practice. With the maturation of nanotechnology and nanoscience Drexler’s name will be remembered as one of the very first and finest visionaries of a coming technogical revolution and it’s impact on society. The intelligensia of today needs more visionary genius that can help us navigate through this increasingly turbulant world. “First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they attack. Then you win.” - Drexler, quoting Gandhi, from one of his latest speeches at the Foresight Institute.

Undesirable World Futures: Things That Could, But Shouldn’t, Happen

Armageddon, The Apocalypse, Ragnarok, Doomsday; the end of the world seems to have mesmerized mankind since the dawn of civilization. Eschatology, the branch of theology that is concerned with the end times, has formed the human psyche through its religious influence. To ensure the propagation and betterment of mankind we need less mythomania and zealots and more applied foresight to confront the actual problems that threaten to annihilate humans on a large scale.

CONTENT

1. INTRODUCTION
2. GLOBAL WAR
3. ECOLOGICAL DISASTER
4. GENETICALLY MODIFIED ORGANISMS RUNS RAMPANT
5. US CIVIL WAR
6. AUTOMATION THE ROBOTIC THREAT
7. INFORMATION AND INFRASTRUCTURAL WARFARE
8. GLOBAL PANDEMICS
9. ENERGY CRISIS
10. GLOBAL ECONOMIC MELTDOWN
11. GLOBAL TOTALITARIANISM AND THE NEW WORLD ORDER
12. HAPPY ENDING OR THE WORLD ON FIRE, IS THERE A CURE?

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The western world need a common idea of a desirable global future. Fragmented interests seem to be locked in an end game where self-gratification justifies violence. Cultural nihilism systematically nurtured in established organizations are obscuring the view of the consequnces of human behavior on our fragile environment. The cumulative process of civilization could cause unparalleled destructive consequences in our lifetime.

Optimists and true belivers in progression consider the world to be predetermined for a better situation. Our collective effort to optimize comfort and happiness should result in exponential growth of general wellness in society, but unfortunatly reality seems to be more troublesome and hard to manage than that. The root of many of todays problems could be found in the broader society that we live in; war, poverty, lack of education, disease etc. These factors always cause social instability and give room for opportunistic individuals who take advantage of the discontent among the population

Most popular news media cover the disintegration and dysfunctions of society as spectacular and sensensational “Man Bites Dog” stories. To understand the real issues that might cause unprecedented damage to modern society another worldview need to emerge. Seeing through simple media lies and distortions enable individuals to rationally make decisions that delay or terminate unwanted development.

In this report I will try to describe some scenarios that are all too realistic to disregard as paranoid fantasies. These scenarios will try to stimulate people to reflect over the many undesirable situations that might arise in a world run for profit, on oil and by political demagouges. The coming 50 years will be a chessboard with many players and opposing interests, new rules and unimaginable drama

“Wishful thinking might bring comfort, but not security.”
- Charles M. Chafer

Many military analysts describe the current global situation as World War 4, referring to the Cold War as World War 3. WW4 is the so-called “war against terror” waged in an assymetrical battlefield where terrorist cells attack civilian and military targets across the world and dissapear as soon as the damage is done. Advanced military technology loose it’s edge when the target is hidden among civilian populations and the enemy is spread across the entire world.

The obvious ambition of the current US government is to have global military dominance through alliances with nations around the world and through military presence on a global scale. While China is growing in economic and technological power, USAUK is charging ahead on a global crusade to ensure geopolitical interests and “security”. Meanwhile China is laying the foundations for the most advanced and homogenous global super-power ever seen (See “China prepares for war with U.S. over Taiwan”, Bill Gertz Nov. 2000) The U.S. and China could rival each other in both economic, technological and military capacity within 10 years, and may eventually confront each other in a military campaign over Taiwan. Adding to this China could also easily be drawn into conflicts over North Korea.

The number of conflict hotspots around the world has reached an all-time high. In the past decade major hot spots have been Bosnia-Herzegovina, Rwanda, Kosova, Afganistan, and Iraq. These sites are referred to as complex emergencies, trouble spots and conflicts. Old ones endure and new ones will appear. The Middles East, The African continent, India/Pakistan, North Korea and South Korea, China and Taiwan, Russian Republics and many other regions have the potential to escalate and start off chain-reactions of diplomatic and military maneuvers that could engulf the world in armed conflict. (See Preventing Future Wars, David Sanam Nyheim)

ECOLOGICAL DISASTER

When the Club of Rome released their report “The Limits To Growth” (Se “Beyond The Limits To Growth”) in 1972 the world was slowly becoming aware of the long-term consequences of industrial society. Dystopian theories of global warming, immense pollution, water shortage, unchecked population growth and subsequent energy usage have been proven to be slightly exagerated. In stead we are experiencing global warming, freak-weather, higher sealevels and a looming ozone hole. We have not seen the final consequences of pollution, deforestation and climate change; the planet is slowly changing, either due to human activity, by natural causes, or both.

The most drastic consequences of ecological change is not necessarily the first order consequnce but the second and third. Water shortage lead to conflicts over water (See Water Conflict Chronology, Pacific Institute), pollution leads to genetic defects and deforestation and environmental damage causes unknown diseases to jump from animals to humans. To understand the complexity of ecological change one need to study the interactions and relatedness in the global system.

Weather control systems like H.A.A.R.P. and the mysterious chemtrails phenomenon could be pre-cursors to how environmental change leaves us no choice but to override the natural system, replacing natural habitats and ecologies with synthetic weather systems and BioSpheres.How to Wreck the Environment”. The book deals with many types of geophysical warfare, the directed military intention of creating havoc using nature as a cataclyst

“The key to geophysical warfare is the identification of the environmental instabilities to which the addition of a small amount of energy would release vastly greater amounts of energy. Environmental instability is a situation in which nature has stored energy in some part of the Earth or its surroundings far in excess of that which is usual. To trigger this instability, the required energy might be introduced violently by explosions or gently by small bits of material able to induce rapid changes by acting as catalysts or nucleating agents.”

The largesse of mankind has brought the world to the edge of the abyss. The human race, and with it a great many animal and plant species, is already on an unavoidable course towards extinction in the relatively near future. The world’s carrying capacity has been exceeded and the question of whether we will survive is not so much if, but when. Once criticality is reached it will only be a matter of time for a single event to lead to a collapse of the global ecological system. Eventually there will be a rapid breakdown somewhere in the food chain leading to total economic and social collapse

GENETICALLY MODIFIED ORGANISMS RUNS RAMPANT.

“The Erewhonians say that we are drawn through life backwards; or again, that we go onwards into the future as into a dark corridor. Time walks beside us and flings back shutters as we advance; but the light thus given often dazzles us, and deepens the darkness which is in front. We can see but little at a time, and heed that little far less than our apprehension of what we shall see next; ever peering curiously through the glare of the present into the gloom of the future, we presage the leading lines of that which is before us, by faintly reflected lights from dull mirrors that are behind, and stumble on as we may till the trap-door opens beneath us and we are gone.” Erewhon – Samuel Butler

From the first GM test fields to the public debate of today, genetically modified organisms have caused much controversy. The question still remains whetever GM crops harm the natural environment through cross-polination and damage the surrounding ecological crops. Crossed GM strains could threaten to wipe out existing natural stains.

Weaponized bacteria and virus are continously being tested in several laboratories around the world. The latest CIA report (See “CIA Says Experts See ‘Darker Bioweapons Future’”, Reuters) concerning biological warfare mention weaponized gene therapy vectors that can change both human and the natural world. Race based weapons has been circulated for years but no evidence is yet available. The latest breakthrough whithin synthetic viruses could lead to much more horrible concepts, one could easliy imagine a gene therapy weapons which remove sight or other human capabilities. (See “Virus built from scratch in two weeks”, Nature)

If the army manage to keep their hideous weapons isolated in laboratories the commercial market is racing ahead with GM food that might pose another serious threat. The FDA recently approved cloned livestock to enter the supermakets. Massproduced foodstuff made of cloned animals seems attractive to the food industry, but the consequences are still hard to comprehend. The idea of identical pieces of every foodstod harvested from homogenetic industrial crops of animals and plants makes the possibilites for disaster endless.

GM humans and neo-eugenics are being revitalized through IVF, Pre-implantation Genetic Diagnostics, sex selection and other reproductive technologies. John. H. Campbell describes this to be the next natural step for human evolution in his “The Moral Imperative of Our Future Evolution” (See below). The utopian ideas described by the aging Francis Galton in “The Eugenic University of Kantsaywhere” should be reexamined and might shed new light on the human drive towards perfection, and, on the other hand, it’s extinction. See Campbell’s possible triggers for uncontrolled GM humans below.

Table II Possible triggers for human autoevolution.

·         Geneticists discover a gene which produces a very desirable effect when introduced into the human genome. For example, overproduction of a DNA repair enzyme might substantially delay aging or reduce the incidence of cancer.

·         A human sperm bank develops an outstanding insemination service. It demands that its users join in programs of raising the offspring in accordance with its researched program of excellence and provide detailed information about the offspring’s genetic and phenotypic characteristics.

·         The AIDS epidemic becomes really serious (e.g. the virus mutates to become transmissible by insect vector) or another new epidemic virus combines the lethality of HIV with high transmissibility. Society embraces programs of inserting a gene into the fertilized egg to make the offspring resistant (such as a coding sequence for a gene shears or antisense segments of the virus). Hereditary resistance to viruses could be developed even today.

·         A wealthy person sponsors his/her own vision of human autoevolution with ten million dollars.

·         The leader of some third world country decides to father a thousand or ten thousand offspring for political, social, military or egotistical reasons.

·         A drug, hormone or growth factor treatment is developed to prevent neurological problems in very premature infants and is found to greatly enhance the development of mental capacity of all fetuses. Embryo engineering is born.

·         An eccentric geneticist successfully clones an offspring with his genotype and captures world attention.

·         Inevitable progress in reproductive biology makes it possible to induce parthenogenesis or to transplant a somatic cell nucleus into an enucleated human egg. Unmarried women or wives of sterile men opt for this route to pregnancy and cause the technique to become accepted and widespread.

·         The results of the human genome project supplemented by the analysis of the genetic variation in the human population convince thoughtful people of the imperative need to regulate the transmission of our genetic heritage to future generations.

·         Countries finally forced to radically control their exploding population develop the ethos to detect superior genotypes and exclude them from the ban on reproduction. The largest countries of the world embrace stringent forced eugenics.

·         Nuclear war elevates the mutational load to where controlled breeding and genetic engineering (such as large scale cloning of rare phenotypically normal offspring) become essential to maintain a sizable functional society.

Source: The Moral Imperative of Our Future Evolution, by John H. Campbell.

U.S. CIVIL WAR  The prospect of a race war in the U.S. has thrilled many (See “The Turner Diaries” and “Hold Back This Day”) science fiction writers and right-wing fanatics. The current population projections for the US based on ethnicity indicates a white population continously being marginalized by increasingly higher immigration rates from Latin America and the third world. The prospect of a militant white resistance able to actually start a civil war is very unlikely (e.g. The National Alliance has aprox. 8000 members). A more likely scenario is a minorty based militant uprising, like the Watts (See picture) and LA riots and many other lesser incidents. Seperatists and secessionists states might also start off a nationwide movement of breakaway states that want independence from the federal government. (See Republic of Texas) This might be be caused by economic or political reasons and could be the start of a civil war where the federal government need to react with military power to ensure its economic fundament.  Many conspiracy theroists today speak of population control as a tool of hidden dictators. From Margareth Sanger to the overshoot-and-collapse models of the population bomb of the 70’s to the one-child policy in China, the political maxim is control of the population. When the population of China and India start moving, either escaping war or being pulled towards western living standards the scenarios of “The Camp of the Saints” could become closer to reality than our political system can handle. AUTOMATION AND THE ROBOTIC THREAT  The continously growth in industrial robots and automation of the workplace (See Evolution Robotics Super Toys Last All Summer Long, Plausible Futures Newsletter) will eventually lead to a major employment crisis. On top of the aging population this could topple societies, cause mass unemployment and ruthless welfare cuts. Meanwhile the robots continue to grow in both numbers and computing power. Scenarios span from the creation of a leisure society where manual work has been abolished and comfort machines sooth the human condition (See www.whywork.org/) to a Terminator-like robotic apocalypse. Both Jeremy Rifkin and recently Marshall Brain (See Robotic Nation) consider the evolution of automation to be the end of the manual workforce. There’s simply nothing left to do for humans when robots have reached sufficient computing power and mechanical sophistication. This could take place in a timeframe of 20 years, soon aftwards many projection of computing power points to a Singularity. The all encompassing super artificial intelligence that indefintely becomes smarter and more aware of it’s own existence and powers. (See The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era, Vernor Vinge)  INFORMATION AND INFRASTRUCTURAL WARFARE  Modern largescale society is completely dependent on infrastructure for the transmission of information. The number of nodes connected to this global system of information flow is accellerating with every new electronic device produced. Modern warfare; from psychological operations and propaganda to advanced battlespace material all rely on electronics.  Military systems are heavily protected against jamming. The civil society, which seems to be the battleground of the future, is vulnerable to slight interruptions in infrastrucuture performance. The blackouts in Northern America, and soon afterwards in Denmark and Italy all seemed non-related. The common dominator in these incidents is seen in the immediate effects on society.   PICTURE: Microwave weapons researcher Edl Schamiloglu sits in front of the Pulserad-110A accelerator, which his lab at the University of New Mexico uses to produce single 100-nanosecond pulses of electron beams, each pulse emitting hundreds of megawatts of power. SOURCE: The Dawn of the E-Bomb, IEEE Spectrum.  Anti-infrastructural weapons, that paralyse key functions of society, could seem like a mild-threat compared to recent solar storms. The Internet seems invincible, having survived Y2K, millions of virus attacks and various political supression. The Internet illustrates how distributed networks of information transfer could learn a lesson to large organizations when it comes to persistency.

GLOBAL PANDEMICS.Eaxctly where AIDS, the West-Nile Virus, SARS, Ebola or any other emerging disease seems to be coming from is still an unanswered question. From the academia comes the theory of “ecological defense mechanism”, from the speculatives comes “military experiment gone awry”. The vectors of transmission are different, but all very deadly. STD’s, mosquito’s, air-born virus or not – if not contained they spread across populated areas with expontential speed. If SARS or Ebola becomes pandemic the world will freeze to a standstill and could, in the worst case, cause war. The recent West-Nile season in the US is over, but for the virologist there is the ongoing Ebola outbreak in Congo and the wait for the next SARS case. Republic of the Congo: Officials Confirm Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever Outbreak ————————————————– Health officials on Fri 14 Nov 2003 confirmed Ebola hemorrhagic fever asthe cause of 11 deaths in the northern forests, signaling the Republic of Congo’s second outbreak of Ebola hemorrhagic fever this year. Bloodspecimens from corpses suspected to have been infected with Ebola virushave tested positive, national public health chief Damase Bozongo said. “Wecan now affirm that Ebola [virus is the cause of the outbreak],” he toldreporters. A World Health Organization spokesman, Boniface Bibousse, alsoverified the [cause of the] outbreak in the Cuvette West region, sayingthat WHO was sending 2 epidemiologists to the area on Sat 15 Nov 2003.First reports from the remote northern region emerged 31 Oct 2003. Ebolahemorrhagic fever, one of the world’s deadliest viral diseases, causesrapid death through massive blood loss in up to 90 percent of thoseinfected. In June 2003, Republic of Congo health authorities announced theend of an Ebola epidemic that killed over 120 people in the same CuvetteWest region. That epidemic — believed to have been started by contact withinfected gorilla flesh, which is eaten in parts of sub-Saharan Africa —broke out in January [2003].The WHO says Ebola hemorrhagic fever has killed more than 1000 people sincethe virus was first identified in 1976 in western Sudan and in [theDemocratic Republic of the Congo] this country’s larger, eastern neighbor. Source: www.promedmail.org

ENERGY CRISIS Economic growth, the prerequisite for capitalism, is dependent on energy. Oil and gas will reach global peak production within the next 10-20 years (See ASPO sees conventional oil production peaking by 2010, Oil&Gas Journal). This fact is not proparly recognized within the poltical community. The lacking planning for this milestone could cause dramatic consequences, bordering on the collapse of the industrialised world.  When the prices of energy skyrocket due higher demand than production the commodities market will go amok. After a period of increasing prices, the autorities will have to enforce blackouts. This is already a reality in many large cities. The resulting effects on industry is hard to imagine. The geographic location of industry will no longer be based on the access to cheap labor but on the access to reliable sources of energy. The auto industry and the transport sector will crumble when the price of gas equals the car. GLOBAL ECONOMIC MELTDOWN  The protagonist in the fascinating fictional story “Operation Economic Depression” fights a worldwide conspiracy that plan to control the money supply and create conditions for a global market crash. Confronting the Patriarchs–a super-secret society of the world’s wealthiest families—the main character struggle to unravel the scheme before millions of investors are ruined and the world is plunged into another Great Depression. (See “Operation Economic Depression”, Ed Thorne – Palisade Press) The ownership of money seems to be be controlled since the Knights Templar and the dynasties of Venice established the European banking system and later through the private banking cartel called the Federal Reserve. While the U.S. economy is being destroyed by war mongering presidents (in generational succession) certain interests always stands to gain.  On March 18, 2003, World War Three Began “What we witness unfolding in Iraq is nothing more than the very beginning of World War III, of the Anglo-Saxon countries (USA, England, Australia) and Israel against the rest of the world. It is a desperate attempt of the Anglo-Saxon world to postpone the collapse of its world domination, and it is the desperate attempt of Israel to prevent its final demise.But they can buy only some time. They may be able to subjugate Arabia and to scare the rest of the world away from the Euro, but they cannot prevent the collapse of the US economy in the long run, since this country’s economy is rotten to the core. If it does not collapse this year, then perhaps next year. But it won’t take very long before it comes crashing down. In other words: Even if the U.S. wins the war in Iraq-and there cannot be any reasonable doubt that they will-it will lose in the long run anyway.[35] And since the world can openly see the massive Jewish assistance in this ugly, bloody, imperialistic game, it spells disaster on them as well.” (From On The Brink of World War Three, The Revisionist)  The corruption of the core economic instruments have had devasting consequences for stock markets. Enron and the rest of corrupted private industry has become nothing less than the whores of governments and will continues to do so until the corrupt plug is pulled. Widespread corruption will eventually cause the need for drastic counter-meassures. When these counter-meassures only produce more corruption the solutions seems to be hard to find. World Bank and IMF corruption scandals in former Soviet Republics and elsewhere are only the beginning of this story.  GLOBAL TOTALITARIANISM AND THE NEW WORLD ORDER  From the atempt to infiltrate the Freemasons in Europe by Adam Weishaupt in the late 18th century seceret societies has played a crucial role in the development of modern society. The myriads of operative secret socities of today could easily be the front for cabal with ambitions of global dominance under their rule. Many consider this idea a classical paranoid conspiracy theory, dubbed The New World Order. Looking at the literature on this phenomenon makes even the serious history geek shiver. Fascism, democracy and capitalism goes hand in hand with secret societies – from the Bilderberger Group, Skull and Bones and the “Committee of 300” secret powers are pulling the strings from their board rooms.  What their real aims are – only they know.   HAPPY ENDING OR WORLD ON FIRE, IS THERE A CURE?  “The word UTOPIA stands in common usage for the ultimate in human folly or human hope — vain dreams of perfection in a Never-Never Land or rational efforts to remake man’s environment and his institutions and even his own erring nature, so as to enrich the possibilities of the common life. Sir Thomas More, the coiner of this word, was aware of both implications. Lest anyone else should miss them, he elaborated his paradox in a quatrain which, unfortunately, has sometimes been omitted from English translations of his Utopia , the book that at last gave a name to a much earlier series of efforts to picture ideal commonwealths. More was a punster, in an age when the keenest minds delighted to play tricks with language, and when it was not always wise to speak too plainly. In his little verse he explained that utopia might refer either to the Greek ‘eutopia’, which means the good place, or to ‘outopia’, which means no place”. –Lewis Mumford (in The Story of Utopias , 1922).  Modern scientific futurology has its root in the utopian litterature of earlier centuries. Our conception of the future can be traced to famous authors like Plato “Republic”, Francis Bacon “The New Atlantis”, Aldous Huxley “Island” and “Brave New World”, Ursual Le Guin “The Dispossessed”, B. F. Skinner “Walden”, Francis Galton “Kantsaywhere” – worlds where utopias and dystopias are examined and explored with rich imagination. To avoid the many catastrophic endings our world confronts we need to form desirable future ideals, worlds where our highest ambitions and needs are fullfilled.  The Hedonistic Imperative (See “The Naturalisation of Heaven”, David Pearce) builds utopian universes on the marvels of technological progress. Utopian Studies Journal gives an impressive overview of the many facets of utopian future studies. Utopian litterature is descriptive of future worlds where we might want to live; these sentiments should be impleneted in our normative behaviour, political institutions and commercial community. To counter the threats this world faces concerned inviduals need to know what is desirable and act accordingly. If everything else fails, our only escape may be the final frontier – space.

NEWS SOURCES* Corruption News* ReliefWeb ARTICLES * Doomsday Scenarios Threatening Life on Our Planet, Stanislav Grof* We’re All Gonna Die!, Wired* 20 Ways the World Could End, Discover* SARS, Bioterrorism and the Media, New Dawn Magazine* Preventing Future Wars, David Sanam Nyheim  RESOURCES:* Apocalypse, the Evolution of apocalyptic belief and how it shaped the western world, PBS.* The Atomic Clock, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists

Nanowar Scenarios and the Future of Warfare

The media coverage of the recent opening of the MIT Insitute for Soldier Nanotechnologies was mostly confined to articles with a clear news angle. A deep information-rich analysis of the consequences of military nanotechnology on the stability of the world system is rare in mainstream media. This report will examine some consequences of this disruptive emerging technology on military affairs.

The phenomenon of war has fascinated and killed men from prehistory to the agricultural revolution and the subsequent organization of resources. Already in 1929 Maurice Davie noted in his anthroplogyThe Evolution of War , “war is the business of half the human race.” Probing further into the logic of war Joseph Tainters “The Collaps of Complex Societies” raise the question of whatever environmental factors or the failures of group decision-making is the main cause of war. Philosophy student Doyne Dawsons “The Origins of War: Biological and Anthroplogical Theories” look at the functions and causality of war. From the invention of gunpowder to the development of nanotechnology, the logic of war is as cynical as ever.

Defense spending has accelerated the evolution and transfer of advanced technology. DARPA developed the Internet that caused the information revolution (IT/Internet) that later caused a civilian technological powershift. Alvin Toffler explore this with great detail in “War and Anti-War, Survival at the Dawn of the 21st Century”. Under this paradigm we live with constant threats of asymetrical warfare waged by knowledge warriors with offensive technology. Toffler reminds us that this is the nature of the threat that has to be adressed, sooner rather than later.

The effects of military spending on nanotech would be similar to information technology, namely more rapid development of nanotech for civilian use. The US Department of Defense 2003 budget worth $379 billion (reaching cold-war levels) has nanotechnology as one of six major research areas. After the National Science Foundation, the DoD is the largest supporter of nanotech research. As part of the National Nanotechnology Initiative’s $710 million 2003 budget, the DoD is committing $201 million for research in nanoelectronics, magnetics, nanomaterials, and detection and protection against chemical, biological, radiological and explosive threats.

The US may be the present world leader in nanotechnology, but it’s not the only country with big defense budgets. Japan, the world’s second largest military spender, is far behind the United States with an annual defence budget of $49 billion, followed by Britain with $36 billion. The top five spenders–the United States, Japan, Britain, France and China–account for about 62 percent of total world military expenditures. The United States now accounts for 43 percent of world military expenditure. Long-term potential enemies of USAUK, including China and Iran (See Nanotechnology Studies Committee), has already invested in nanotech research centers and may in the future gain significant nanotech capabilities. Although a small part of these military budgets are used for nanoscience research - civilian research budgets will produce results that easily can be transferred for military purposes.

To counter the threat of increasingly sophiscated warfare - satellites and UAVs has become the eyes and ears of the army and intelligence agencies of the world. (See “Attack of the Drones”, BetterHumans) Al Martin, a central iran-contras figure, reported late 2002 about UAVs the size of large soccerballs that hovered and asked for ID papers. According to Mr. Martin this craft was showcased at a secret sales meeting between the US and Chinese military. (See Al Martin RAW) Rumors aside, s cientists are applying nanoscience in aviation technology to improve precision and strength of sensors. Nanotechnology will change defense systems en masse - from the aviation industry to the security/intelligence/surveillance industry and beyond.

INDEX.

1. MILITARY NANOTECH APPLICATIONS

2. DEFENSIVE NANOBOTS?

3. DANGEROUS HEADLINES OF THE FUTURE

4. NON-LETHAL NANOWEAPONS?

5. THE LOGIC OF NANOWAR SCENARIOS

6. 4 NANOWAR SCENARIOS

7. INTERVIEW WITH EDWIN THOMAS, INST. FOR SOLDIER NANOTECHNOLOGIES

The phenomenon of war has fascinated and killed humans from prehistory to the agricultural revolution and the subsequent organization of resources. Already in 1929 Maurice Davie noted in his anthroplogy The Evolution of War, “war is the business of half the human race.” Probing further into the logic of war Joseph Tainters “The Collaps of Complex Societies” raise the question of whatever environmental factors or the failures of group decision-making are the main cause of war. Philosophy student Doyne Dawsons “The Origins of War: Biological and Anthroplogical Theories” look at the functions and causality of war. From the invention of gunpowder to the development of nanotechnology, the logic of war is as cynical as ever.  Defense spending has accelerated the evolution and transfer of advanced technology. DARPA developed the Internet that caused the information revolution (IT/Internet) that later caused a civilian technological powershift. Alvin Toffler explore this with great detail in “War and Anti-War, Survival at the Dawn of the 21st Century”. Under this paradigm we live with constant threats of asymetrical warfare waged by knowledge warriors with offensive technology. Toffler reminds us that this is the nature of the threat that has to be adressed, sooner rather than later. Military spending on nanotech would have the same effect as with information technology, namely more rapid development of nanotech for civilian use. The US Department of Defense 2003 budget worth 9 billion (reaching cold-war levels) has nanotechnology as one of six major research areas. After the National Science Foundation, the DoD is the largest supporter of nanotech research. As part of the National Nanotechnology Initiative’s 0 million 2003 budget, the DoD is committing 1 million for research in nanoelectronics, magnetics, nanomaterials, and detection and protection against chemical, biological, radiological and explosive threats.  The US may be the present world leader in nanotechnology, but it’s not the only country with big defense budgets. Japan, the world’s second largest military spender, is far behind the United States with an annual defence budget of billion, followed by Britain with billion. The top five spenders–the United States, Japan, Britain, France and China–account for about 62 percent of total world military expenditures. The United States now accounts for 43 percent of world military expenditure. Long-term potential enemies of USAUK, including China and Iran (See Nanotechnology Studies Committee and “Order for SEM to Iran”, Obducat), has already invested in nanotech research centers and may in the future gain significant nanotech capabilities. Although a small part of these military budgets are used for nanoscience research - civilian research budgets will produce results that easily can be transferred for military purposes. To counter the threat of increasingly sophiscated warfare - satellites and UAVs has become the eyes and ears of the army and intelligence agencies of the world. (See “Attack of the Drones”, BetterHumans) Al Martin, a central iran-contras figure, reported late 2002 about UAVs the size of large soccerballs that hovered and asked for ID papers. According to Mr. Martin this craft was showcased at a secret sales meeting between the US and Chinese military. (See Al Martin RAW) Rumors aside, scientists are applying nanoscience in aviation technology to improve precision and strength of sensors. Nanotechnology will change defense systems, from the aviation industry to the security/surveillance/intelligence industry and beyond.

1. MILITARY NANOTECH APPLICATIONS Information technology and the Internet has been a precursor of military transformation and have changed the priorities of many defence budgets. Nanotechnology will enable completely new types of defense systems and offensive weaponry. Applied nanotechnology in defense systems range from individual soldier enhancement to completely new surveillance and intelligence gathering tools. Ultra-thin sheets interwoven with sensors can be stretched across miles and give high-resolution surveillance of miniscule changes in temperature, sound or air-quality. Bacterium-sized devices could convert high explosives into inert substances, a technique that would neutralize even nuclear weapons. Most western countries have, with some hesitation, established civilian nanoscience research institutes the last 5-10 years. Today military research institution across the globe is looking at possible military applications of nanotechnology. The most interesting application area is wihtin the materials sciences, where the aim is to reduce the weight of ammunition/food storage and strenghten the properties of equipment. An anti-corrosion nanocoated painting is already being tested on navy vessels. To be able to practically deploy nanotechnology in the armed forces scientists need to mass-produce large quantities of the desired nanomaterial. The genereal term “nanofoundries” refers to all bulk production at the nanoscale. Silicon transistors, and later MEMS, have been produced in bulk since the 1960’s. Today several methodes exist to mass-produce carbon nanotubes and some will probably become commercially viable within the next few years.  2. DEFENSIVE NANOBOTS? To be able to construct machines that operate at the nanoscale, current top-down approaches are cumbersome. This is why many consider the bottom-up approach more promising to build nanoscale devices. The Protonic NanoMachine Project at the Osaka University Graduate School of Frontier Biosciences in Japan is looking at the self-assembly, regulation, conformational switching, force generation, and energy transduction of biological macromolecular complexes. Their aim is to use machinery found in nature to power artificial nanomachines. Military uses of nanodevices could be in parts for smaller robots, systems for containment of dangerous weapons or in-vivo medical devices for soldiers. Self-organization of desired nano structures is crucial for the eventual mass-production of nanomachines. Without self-organization mass production of nanomachines, which work flexibly and precisely at the same time, is impossible. No matter how useful individually made nanomachines could be, there would be no practical applications without large-scale production. The outcome of their studies on protein nanomachines is expected to produce useful knowledge to eventually form a basis for design principles for artificial nanomachines. Biology and mechanical physics is merging to form nanobiotechnology. The use of nanotechnology for detection and defense against biochemical weapons has interested scientist a long time. Combining biocehcmical sensors for early warning with antimicrobial nanoemulsions for treatment would make the soldier practically invulnerable against toxic warfare. The biopharmaceutical NanoBio Corporation produce water/oil emulsions that employ uniformly sized droplets in the nanometer (10-9 meter) range. The nanoemulsions destroy microbes effectively without toxicity or harmful residual effects. The classes of microbes eradicated are virus (e.g., HIV, Herpes), bacteria (e.g., E. coli, Salmonella), spores (e.g., Anthrax), and fungi (e.g., Candida albicans, Byssochlamys fulva). This is an example of the many commercial civilian companies working on dual-use technology. The range of dual-use and multi-purpose nanotechnology would grow as commercial interests look into nanoscience. Many readers may shake their heads in disbelief to this information. Head of unit for nanosciences and nanotechnologies in the European Commission Renzo Tomellini recently said to Cordis News that he “… believes that books and articles have contributed to fears about nanotechnology. Some have combined invisibility, movement and the possibility of reproducing and learning, to create hypothetical ‘nano-robots’. As presented, these fears are not realistic, are beyond science fiction, and have little or nothing to do with nanotechnology…” I agree with Tomellini’s cautionary advice. It still makes me wonder how he can dismiss the many reports and analysis that mention weapons that nobody in the civilian research community have the nerves to even dream up?

3. DANGEROURS HEADLINES OF THE FUTURE Atlantic Monthly recently published “Headlines over the Horizon” written by defense and technology analysts at the RAND Corporation. Apart from the usual hotspots of future wars; the Middle East, India, Pakistan, Russia (See also “Russia as a Security Disaster Area: Possible Conflicts and Interventions in 2015” PDF, The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis) and Africa - technology was the real shocker. The RAND researchers fears high-altitude anti-satellite nuclear attacks at some 250 commercial and military satellites critical to the western infrastructure. The retalitatory crosshairs from such attacks could be targeted at high-technology countries like Russia and China but also Pakistan, North-Korea, and even Iran. According to RAND researcher future soldiers deployed in urban guerilla warfare will use hand-held computers and micro-robots for real-time battlespace command and control. MEMS-enabled smart dust (See the Plausible Futures Newsletter Oct. 2002, “InfoWar, NanoWar and Exotic Weapons”) and the use of mind-controlled insects to gather information is also covered. Since RAND has the guts to publish this, the really juicy classified stuff would at least include genetically engineered nanoenhanced war dogs/animals. Rats are already used to clear minefields. Research done at the State University of New York on remote controlled rats might be an indicator of where this technology could lead. (See “Here comes the ratbots”, BBC)  4. NON-LETHAL NANOWEAPONS? Most adults remember rubber bullets, first used in the late 1960’s in Palestine and later Northern-Ireland. Non-lethal weapons caused much more controversy in the 1990’s when they became fashionable among civilian police. After much secrecy the government admitted research on; very low-frequency sound generators that would be tuned to incapacitate humans, sticky foams and “calmatives” that would immobilize or sedate adversaries, specially cultured bacteria that would corrode and degrade components of weapons systems, optical munitions that would cripple sensors and dazzle, if not blind, soldiers, acoustic beam weapons that would knock them out, netting and shrouds that would thwart the movement of aircraft, tank, and armored vehicles. (See “The Soft Kill Fallacy”, The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists) These and many other related technologies have already been demonstrated at a proof-of-concept level. The proposed technologies raised questions about compliance with international agreements and still many fear black-budget research into these technologies. Nonetheless, government laboratories and private contractors are pursuing numerous similar programs. (See “Wonder Weapons”, US News and World Report and “Weapons of Mass Compliance”, LAWeekly) All these futuristic concepts could be realized sooner with nanotechnology. Due to size-reduction electromagnetic weapons could be integrated into existing handguns. Nanoparticles could be coated on bullets for more punch or other non-lethal properties. To be able to comprehend the complexity of the possible developments of nanotechnology for military purposes the following scenario planning process was exercised.

5. THE LOGIC OF NANOWAR SCENARIOS Scenario planning found its first practical applications within military planning. The need to have contingency plans ready in case anything went wrong was critical to avoid large losses (there’s always worst case scenarios). Today wargaming and simulations of future battlefields are built using as much empirical “realworld” data to ensure a high degree of realism. Future military planners should be able to determinate the statistical probability of a desired goal with increasingly high accuracy. Scenario analysis had its commercial breakthrough with the Royal Dutch/Shell Group (See Storying Corporate Futures: The Shell Scenarios) when it helped them reduce their losses in the oil crisis of the 70’s. Kees Van Der Heijden’s book “Scenarios, the Art of Strategic Conversation” gives a thrilling and educational view of the world of corporate planning. While strategic thinkers and informed decision makers have many tools at their disposal, scenario planning stand out as the most practical one. For a detailed perspective on how scenario planning is applied in the military, see “The use of Scenarios in Long Term Defence Planning”. The military approach to scenario planning utilizes a set of hypothetical situations for the employment of military forces. The situations are specified in terms of geographic, military and civil parameters. Military capability requirements are determined from assessments of the ability to achieve mission objectives. This article cannot describe the complete process of a succesful scenario planning exercise, but let me describe the general structure. To approach a complex problem you need to aggregate reailty or create abstract worlds where the problem appears and therefore hopefully can be solved. In these carefully consistancy-checked stories, your problem and solution can be pla