Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence

Even minor changes in our nuclear weapons strategy have been rejected as too risky. The proposed studies avoid that criticism, and by exposing the existing risk will provide the motivation needed to consider new options. They also will provide a road map for rapidly reducing the nuclear threat by identifying the most likely failure mechanisms. Risk analysis studies also will illuminate the relationship between nuclear terrorism and nuclear war.

Source: Defusing the nuclear threat, Martin Hellman.

What does $120 oil mean for the global economy?

During the 1990’s an increase in oil prices of $10 reduced growth of real GDP by approximately one-half percent. Hence the concern after 2001 as oil rose from $20 to $40, then panic as oil rose from $40 to $80. At $120, oil prices are up 6x from the 1990’s average. Where is the global recession most economists expected if oil prices skyrocketed? (Matthew Simmons was one of the few experts who questioned this consensus, saying that rising oil prices were not necessarily poisonous to GDP.)

Source: Fabius Maximus.